According to @MI_Algos, BTC has traded below its 50-Week SMA for about six weeks while the Weekly RSI fell below 41, signaling weaker momentum than the late-2021 phase. Source: @MI_Algos on X, Dec 30, 2025. They estimate the 21-Week SMA is roughly two weeks from a bearish cross under the 50-Week SMA, which they treat as macro downtrend confirmation rather than a bottom signal. Source: @MI_Algos on X, Dec 30, 2025. BTC is consolidating between the 100-Week and 50-Week SMAs, making a reclaim of the 50-Week SMA the decisive level; rejection there would raise the probability of a deeper corrective phase with suppressed Weekly RSI. Source: @MI_Algos on X, Dec 30, 2025. They note visible stacked ask liquidity near $100K that could cap upside, impede a clean 50-Week test, and accelerate the death-cross timeline; if that liquidity is pulled, a fast move into resistance is possible. Source: @MI_Algos on X, Dec 30, 2025. They highlight the next 2–3 weeks into the Monthly, Quarterly, Semiannual, and Yearly close as pivotal, with post-12/31/2025 Trend Precognition signals and Q1 2026 Timescape levels offering further direction. Source: @MI_Algos on X, Dec 30, 2025. Trading takeaway: anchor risk management to the 50-Week SMA reclaim versus rejection and avoid overtrading until confirmation. Source: @MI_Algos on X, Dec 30, 2025.

According to @MI_Algos, BTC printed a daily close above the 21-Day SMA on Sunday, which helped fuel today’s bounce, but the broader trend remains bearish until weekly closes reclaim the 50-Week SMA and Weekly RSI closes above 41, indicating bear-market invalidation only after those triggers, source: @MI_Algos. The decisive line in the sand is the Yearly Open/Timescape level: holding above it provides a platform for recovery, while losing it convincingly opens the door to deeper downside and the psychological transition from hope to denial, source: @MI_Algos. Recent upside likely reflects typical pre–Fed decision positioning that squeezes shorts and traps late longs, so rallies should be treated as potential liquidity events until the weekly signals flip, source: @MI_Algos. If BTC drops back below the Yearly Open, the final local support is the active trend line; a breakdown risks a lower low and tests at Q2 2025 Timescape levels, with accelerated capitulation if those supports fail, source: @MI_Algos.

According to @MI_Algos, FireCharts order book data shows buyers across classes lifting BTC through modest ask-side liquidity to push price above the Yearly Open Timescape Level (source: @MI_Algos, Dec 9, 2025). According to @MI_Algos, price holding above the Yearly Open suggests the pump may have further upside while squeezing shorts and luring in late longs, increasing liquidation risk for undisciplined traders (source: @MI_Algos, Dec 9, 2025). According to @MI_Algos, this pattern is typical into a Federal Reserve rate decision and often punishes reactive positioning (source: @MI_Algos, Dec 9, 2025). According to @MI_Algos, broader conditions remain bearish unless invalidated by weekly closes above the 50-Week SMA and a Weekly RSI reading above 41, which are the key confirmation levels for a trend reversal (source: @MI_Algos, Dec 9, 2025).

According to @MI_Algos, Bitcoin closed the week above the 21-Month SMA, but only a monthly close above that level would matter for trend validation, while price briefly dipped below before recovering (source: @MI_Algos). Losing the 50-Week SMA with a second consecutive weekly close below it validates that the bull trend is broken on a weekly basis (source: @MI_Algos). The Weekly RSI losing 41 support and printing a second consecutive close below 41 has historically validated bear markets 100% of the time when it occurred in BTC, making it the most reliable macro indicator cited here (source: @MI_Algos). Near-term support at the Q2 2025 Timescape level around $82.5k and the 100-Week SMA was pierced by a wick to $80.5k, potentially an overshoot but with low confidence to hold without further confirmation (source: @MI_Algos). A recovery requires reclaiming the Yearly Open, 50-Week SMA, and 21-Day SMA, plus a Weekly RSI close back above 42 to confirm the bottom; until then, current price action resembles a bear-market exit rally (source: @MI_Algos). Given knee-jerk reactions to data and headlines, volatility is expected to amplify, so traders should prioritize these technical levels over narratives (source: @MI_Algos).